Matthew Revell

So, what happens now in Wolverhampton? Labour remains the largest party on the council but has lost its majority. While many assume a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition to be inevitable, activists from all three parties tell a different story.

Personal acrimony, policy differences and longer-term strategy are feeding a frenzy of discussion. Within the parties, councillors are deciding what they’re prepared to give up, while rivals play out a courtship dance over pints across the city. Although it remains the most likely outcome, a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is far from set in stone.

Let’s take a look at the possible configurations of Wolverhampton City Council over the next two years:

• Conservative/Lib Dem coalition
• Labour/Lib Dem coalition
• no overall control
• a grand coalition of all three parties.

At first glance, that last option - all three parties working together - seems to originate in the realm of flying pigs. However, reliable Labour party sources have reported that the Conservatives may have made such an offer to Labour, so long as the leader of the so-called “progressive administration of city unity” had a Tory leader.

Tellingly, it seems the Lib Dems had heard nothing of the offer before Labour rejected it outright. Does that suggest the possibility of a crazy fifth option of a Labour/Conservative coalition? Probably not. There’s no love lost between the Tories and Labour in Wolverhampton, so talk of them working together in any capacity seems very far from both the private and public images presented by either party.

So, if such an offer really were made, what does it say for the relationship between the city’s Tories and Lib Dems? Anecdotes from the campaign trail, although easily dismissed when seen as isolated incidents, make more sense in this context. St Peter’s ward - one of the Lib Dems’ two main targets - was the scene of a particularly cogent incident: surprised to see Conservatives campaigning in a ward they had no chance of winning, Lib Dem activists asked the Tories how they were getting on. Their response was along the lines of, “we’re here to ruin your campaign”.

Of course, it’s right that each party should campaign wherever they stand. However, if this incident happened in the way that it was told to me, it suggests that there are bridges to be built between the two sides before they could form a coalition. Parties working together towards an inevitable coalition do not seek to sabotage each other’s campaigns, particularly in a ward where one has a strong chance of unseating the leader of the council.

The Lib Dems’ hard-fought campaign against Labour in St Peter’s was partly one of attacking the man. They accused Roger Lawrence of having a low profile in the ward and lay blame for its problems partly at his feet. While the Lib Dems locally do not rule out a coalition with Labour, they acknowledge that Roger Lawrence’s re-election as leader of Wolverhampton Labour group would make such an alliance nigh-on impossible. Additionally, the Lib Dems’ recent gains in the largely middle class Park ward are partly due to local frustration with Labour. A Lib/Lab coalition could set the Lib Dems back on their path to a greater presence in the city. However, Labour are certain that such a coalition is at least on the table.

So then, that Conservative/Lib Dem coalition. The question is: who seeks to lose most? As junior partners, the Lib Dems would be a natural target for blame if things went wrong and would be unlikely to receive plaudits for success. They’d benefit from a cabinet post or two and the realisation of some of their policies.

However, in Hammersmith and Fulham, the Conservatives ruled out coalitions because they were concerned that such compromises on policy could tarnish their reputation. With another local election in two years, should the current climate continue, the Conservatives could win enough seats to take overall control in Wolverhampton. By playing a longer game, the Conservatives could avoid compromise and give Labour another two years in which to pursue unpopular policies such as annual council tax rises.

Nonetheless, despite rumours of grand coalitions and sniping on the campaign trail, talk from both sides suggests that the Conservatives are keen to get coalition discussion under way as soon as possible. They’ve even floated the idea of a cabinet post for the Lib Dems were the Conservatives to take full control in 2010.

So, while both sides would prefer not to be in opposition, they have their reasons for avoiding a coalition. Crucially, the Lib Dems’ advantage of being neither of the other two parties would take a hit in a coalition. Which leaves the fourth option: no overall control.

While neither Labour nor the Conservatives see it as a serious option, no overall control would give the Lib Dems a great deal of power without compromise. Okay, they wouldn’t have any cabinet posts but their effective veto during the election of cabinet members would give them an excellent negotiating position and could see the other parties promise to implement Lib Dem policies. During the everyday running of the council, the Lib Dems would hold the deciding votes whilst retaining their independence and avoiding the messy business of campaigning against their coalition partners at the next election.

Whatever happens, things are certain to change in Wolverhampton. With the loss of several cabinet members, at the very least there’ll be new portfolio holders. One middle-ranking council officer told me that many officers had only ever worked under a Labour administration and they’d be in for a few surprises were the Tories and Lib Dems to take control. Most party activists and political anoraks in the city are convinced that a Tory/Lib Dem alliance will happen and it probably will. However, there’s a lot of discussion to happen before we know. With the first meeting between the Tories and Lib Dems due to take place on Wednesday, we could be in for a few more days of speculation.

I’m sitting on the top floor of Wolverhampton Civic Centre, with my WCR FM co-host Neil Calloway, waiting for the Wolverhampton local election count to get underway.

So far, not a lot’s happening. Blue sky above, refreshments in the corner and a bloke from the Express and Star on the next table.

I’ll be updating this throughout the morning.

09.30: And we’re off. The presiding officer has started the count. Express and Start, BBC WM and national BBC are here.

10.40: St Peter’s declared for Roger Lawrence (Labour). Looks like a slim margin. Didn’t quite hear but sounded like 954 for Labour, 891 Lib Dem and 381 Conservative.

Update: Recording for and live reporting back to WCR FM took over from the blog.

Last night, on the Wolverhampton Politics Show, I led with the story that Wolverhampton South West’s Labour MP, Rob Marris, had been arrested and charged for criminal damage.

The story is now national news but it all seems a little odd to me.

Reports so far suggest that a van was blocking the bus stop at which Rob, and a queue of others, were waiting. When the bus arrived, the van driver refused to move his vehicle so Rob clambered over it. The Daily Mail continues, “the bemused van driver asked onlookers who the man was and it was then he was told he was the local MP.”

Since the incident, Rob has been arrested and charged for criminal damage.

Three things strike me as odd:

• Was there no way around the van?
• Would the van driver have bothered to report this incident if the person clambering over his van was anyone other than the local MP?
• Why have the police charged him over, what appears to be, an entirely trivial matter?

I do wonder what damage the van suffered to upset the driver so much. I’m sure more will come out when the case goes to court.

I’ve largely ignored the Phorm storm because other people are doing a great job of covering it.

I’m pleased to say that my new ISP of choice - Enta - are staunchly opposed to Phorm and a senior Enta manager is reportedly behind a site called the Anti Phorm League. Admittedly, right now I’m still with Virgin Media - one of the three planning to sell customer data to Phorm - but shall be leaving soon.

Anyway, Political Penguin - Wolves LUG member, local Labour activist and blogger - has been covering Phorm in quite some detail. Once he’s got hold of a subject, Gareth digs deep. He’s asked a great many relevant questions of Phorm - and received some replies - and also gives a great explanation of why Phorm is bad for you and me.

As Labour takes us into yet another year of massive deficit and increasing taxes to fund their failed social engineering projects, our friends at BBC News are focusing on the real issues of this budget:

AGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I like Matt Wright, as a broadcaster. He’s got a friendly smile and a chummy way about him. He also likes Hocus Pocus by Focus. However, he’d really do better to stick to the sort of fluffy subjects at which his show excels.

When I was a child - very young - I couldn’t understand why the government didn’t just do everything. After all, they were there to do the best for everyone, right? Experience and a little reading soon rid me of such naive thinking. Sadly, Wright and his guests - perhaps spurred on by Northern Rock’s bungled nationalisation - appear to cling to such childish notions.

Today’s lead topic on The Wright Stuff was, “Is gas a rip-off?” Here are some of the wonderful insights that Wright and his guests shared with the audience:

• Gas privatisation was supposed to make gas bills cheaper but they just keep going up.
• They say they need the money for windmills but I bet they’ll still charge us for electricity when they’ve built the windmills, even though the electricity will be free to them.
• We need evidence that they’re spending this money on windmills and not just giving it back to (evil) shareholders! If they were nationalised, then we’d have access to that information.
• There’s only one other gas supplier in my area and a few weeks after switching to them they put their prices up too.
• I don’t have time to switch my gas supplier.

(These aren’t direct quotes.)

That last one is my person favourite, particularly as it was uttered by Natalie Cassidy (y’know, her what used to be Sonia in Eastenders and, no, I didn’t realise she was a fount of political and current affairs wisdom, either). Three things to say to that:

1. Is anyone really that busy after they leave Eastenders?
2. If you choose not to switch gas suppliers, tough. What do you want? Someone to choose the brand of toothpaste you buy as well?
3. Switching gas suppliers is not hard: there are so many companies vying to help you choose and even the tax-funded Ofgem will help you out. Hell, I even got paid £15 as an incentive by such a website last time.

Let’s look at the others, though, starting with the idea that utility privatisation hasn’t worked because gas bills have gone up recently. It shows a stunning lack of awareness, or self-delusion, to ignore the other factors that have led to our recent rises in utility bills:

• dwindling North Sea reserves
• increased demand from across the globe, not least China
• the woefully under-reported renewables obligation, which is the largest contributor to recent bill rises.

Now, I’ll give it to them, they did say that British Gas are “claiming the rises will pay for windmills” or something similar, but the immediate leap to demand nationalisation is worryingly indicative of the current political climate. Nationalisation, as Chris Mounsey points out, doesn’t have a particularly glorious record. Anyone remember the British-owned car industry? I just about remember the pre-privatisation days of British Telecom, when phone usage was a luxury thanks to high pricing. Granted, new technology has always contributed to the lowering of phone prices but competition has been the driver of both that new technology and lower bills overall.

Let’s touch briefly on wind power: the renewables obligation goes to subsidise electricity generated now, so rather than being free, that electricity is costing more. Wind turbines will require investment to build and ongoing maintenance, along with transmission costs. Wind power, also, is not reliable nor particularly efficient and requires generation from other sources (coal, gas, nuclear, for example) to back it up when it’s either too windy or not quite windy enough. So, this is the Goldilocks of power generation and just like Goldilocks in the story, it can’t go for that long without needing a lie down; it’s the energy source with ME. So, no, your electricity won’t be free and nor should it be.

As for there being just one alternative gas supplier in a given area: that’s simply untrue on mainland Great Britain. So, if you do switch and find that eventually your new supplier raises prices, there are other suppliers to whom you can turn.

On LugRadio we were sometimes berated for discussing subjects we knew little of. However, our audience was (is) intelligent enough and well-read enough to pick us up when we were wrong. And besides, LugRadio is a purely hobby operation where the presenters don’t have the luxury of a professional research team or of actually being paid to know what the hell they’re talking about. The Wright Stuff’s daytime TV audience is probably only just one notch above that for Jeremy Kyle and almost certainly takes what its presenters say at face value.

Doubtless nationalisation will come up on tonight’s Wolverhampton Politics Show. Tune in at wcrfm.com on 101.8 FM in Wolverhampton between 7pm and 8pm tonight.

John Redwood on why today’s addition of 2p per litre on fuel tax will make no difference to the environment because people will continue to use their cars, trucks and motorbikes (my emphasis):

“They have no choice. There aren’t enough trains to take the strain, and so often the only practical way of getting yourself and your goods to work and to market is to go by road. People do need to get the children to school, themselves to their employment, and do need to pick up the family shopping from the supermarket. They are not being wicked doing this by car - it is often the only way.”

Apparently, we may see an election some time between 25th October and the 8th November.

More at Wolverhampton Politics!

This Friday, I’m interviewing Wolverhampton South West’s MP Rob Marris for The Wolverhampton Politics Show on WCR FM.

If you have a question for Rob, post them in the comments here. Please give me your name and location, unless you wish to remain anonymous.

My mate Stuart often talks about the five best things about the UK. I don’t know if I’d put it in my top five but I love the Last Night of the Proms.

I enjoy it as tradition for tradition’s sake, for overtly celebrating Britishness, for its constancy throughout my life. Making it more representative of the UK as a whole has worked brilliantly and watching people celebrate their regions and regional emblems gives me a surge of pride.

It’s true, this country has some terrible things in its past but that shouldn’t be a reason to forget all the great things. I’m British now and I love my country now. No country’s past or present are perfect; real life is far too complicated for that.
I’m sure I’d love my country were I American, French or Indian. My patriotism is fairly simple: I love being British because it’s what I know and what I do best, not because I believe it elevates me above anyone else.